Debate Musings

I went to the debate at the Red Lion, which is a German bar in Silver Lake. Very bizarre and fun experience. The place was packed with liberal hipsters and preboomers, but was very quiet as everybody was following the debate. As the showdown reached it's first hour, the crowd got looser, as the bar was still a bar and people started bonding over their man: Obama.

The debate itself was a very entertaining and I thought both candidates did a good job and feel that Obama won through his temperment and intelligence. His insults to McCain also came off better than his opponent's, which were mostly recycled talking points. Overall, not a game changer, but a good debate to keep Obama's move up.

The focus now goes to the bailout and the debate with Palin and Biden. The expectations are very low for Palin, so it will be a very spinny debate where what matters who contextualizes and embellishes the debate better. Judging by her interviews, she isn't up for thoughtful conversation and can't think on her feet. This very well could be a shit storm. Thursday could be decisive.

Another Day...

...Another what the fuck moment in our great nation. We see, John McCain put on his fucking cape and fly off to Washington obstenisbly to save our nation by solving this financial crisis. Seems reasonable, no? I mean, the guy has us, meaning America, first and he wouldn't 'suspend' his campaign for political reasons, right? I mean this is the guy who brought us Sarah Palin for heaven sakes! He knows what we need and just how to get it.

This skipping of debates (plural on purpose as you will soon find, dear reader) is just so he can roll up his sleeves and solve the most incomprehensible and complicated financial conundrum in our history. After all, he was a POW. And even though he has no training in economics and has admitted that 'economics is not his strong point', well, who cares? He's a hero! He was shot down in a plane! Now he is going to save us by going to Washington and disrupting negotiations between congress and the Treasury. Oh wait, that isn't such a good thing, is it?

Hmmmm. He wouldn't be doing all this for nefarious means, would he? I mean it's a huge coincidence that he has proposed to make up the lost debate by pushing back Sarah Palin's debate, right? I mean, what is the plus of sequestering her away from the public/press? It's not like she just gave one of the most pathetic interviews in the history of Couric, is it? That would just be a crazy conspiracy theory!

In sooth, Palin cannot think on her feet one bit. She can read a teleprompter better than Mac Daddy, but ask her anything and she won't know how to reply unless you count her warbling in tongues about witchcraft. I've heard her interviews compared to an oral exam by a kid who crammed the night before the test. I'd equate it to a fifth grader who got lost on a field trip to Harvard and, through a series of mishaps, takes an oral exam on foreign policy. Her 'answers' (if we can categorize them as such), her intonations, her filler words illuminate her inexperience and fear of being in this strange spotlight. I could see her wanting out. Why accept this when she will be continually mocked by everyone (save her fellow parsel-tonguers).

I've also heard insidious claims that McCain actually pulled his gambit due to early news about how terrible this interview went. I'd never be one to insinuate such frivolous rumors, but still wouldn't blame the man. Watch the interview and see for yourself.

Politics of Politics!

Hello dear readers (all one of you)!

Things have gone from Asperger's (high-functioning) to fucking drooling with stupidity in the last week or so. John McCain has gone from Lou Dobbs (circa 1995) to Lou Dobbs (circa 2008) in a matter of sound bites! We still have a mysterious candidate on the run from the law in the figurative (press) and literal (troopergate) way. We still have polls coming out of stupid fucking Ohioan and Pennsylvanian rednecks having reservations about Obama because he's a 'nigger.' We have Biden fucking up every syllable he enunciates for no discernible reason. We have Paulsen abdicating Bush and we have Bill Clinton plugging Palin and we have killer anaylsis from the fucking VIEW! I swear, dumbest election season ever. We have two national crises of epic proportion and we're talking about lipstick up a pig's ass being the controversy of a day. Wake me up and douse me with cocaine and hallucinogenics and breed me with eugenics! Fucking stupid election.......................................

Hellllooooooo GRE....and Good Bye!

Although I'll miss you. Smoooch!

Political Junction Function

This past week was a turning point in the campaign. The big issues turned from personal to economical with stunning speed. There will be no more Britney ads. There will be no more Paris ads. Now frivolous bullshit will be political suicide.

This takes away McCain's game plan, as he was hoping to run on character issues all the way until November. He had his personal story, Palin's fresh face, and Obama's perceived baggage (muslim, effete, liberal etc..) to hammer in his bold ads and carry him to victory. Unfortunately for McCain, the events on Wall Street from last week are now an impenetrable barrier to his intentions. Now, real policies and issues will have to be thrust to the center of this campaign and the old rules--his campaign manager told the press that personal narrative, instead of issues, will be the deciding factor in this election--are replaced by the reaction to the financial storm.

Here's the thing: Neither Obama or McCain have a viable plan for fixing this cluster-fuck in Wall Street. The difference is how Obama is acting cool, as opposed to McCain's bullshit populist fury. Yes, people are justifiably mad at this 850 billion dollar bailout, but they don't want their commander and chief to be spewing fire against invisible enemies: the lobbyists, the pork, the fat cats, the old boys club. That doesn't solve anything and also, McCain has been in the senate for forever. He saw this all go down and he has been an advocate for deregulation. This precipitous turn to populism just feels off, overall.

This crisis is also thrusting Palin's personality onto the backburner and her experience and intelligence (as shown from her ABC interview) into the front. This pick doesn't seem quite as exciting anymore, as much as terrifying. Her ostensible strength of energy turned out to be as inane as her foreign policy idiocy. Here's a paragraph about energy and oil. Try to figure out what the fuck she's talking about:

"Of course, it's a fungible commodity and they don't flag, you know, the molecules, where it's going and where it's not. But in the sense of the Congress today, they know that there are very, very hungry domestic markets that need that oil first. So, I believe that what Congress is going to do, also, is not to allow the export bans to such a degree that it's Americans who get stuck holding the bag without the energy source that is produced here, pumped here. It's got to flow into our domestic markets first."

What is she talking about? The more you scratch at the surface, the more you realize she's like a pretty easter egg: with runny yolk where her brain should be. McCain and his guys will have keep her sequestered until November. They also negotiated the debate to make sure that it will be a tightly controlled one with no follow-up questions or time for Biden and her to go at each other 1 on 1. If she can't go up against Biden than what will she do with Putin? With Iran? Pakistan?

Now she has effectively turned into a symbol. She galvanizes the crazy right and pisses off the left. The latest poll numbers have shown her fading with the indies, who will decide this election, so this could prove to be a terrible choice for John. But never underestimate the glorious stupidity of people in general. When 1 out of 3 democratic voters have reservations of Obama because of his race, we can't be certain about anything and Palin and McCain might still pull this stupid fucking campaign off.

My new thinking on this election/country is that if we vote for these stupid motherfuckers the same way we voted for Bush, we deserve to fucking crumble. We know all to well what the past 8 years have given us. We have seen a 3 trillion dollar wae, Katrina, torture, and now an Iraq-sized debacle in our financial markets and seen our nation tumble in every measurable way. If we are willing to hand the reins over to a senile, crazy corpse and a hockey mom then we should roll over and die. In 2000, we had no reason to believe that Bush would be a disaster. 2004 there was no reason to vote this fucker back in. In 2008, it's like the old proverb: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me; fool me three times, poke me to make sure I'm still alive.

What a stupid fucking election...

Politics

Let us do some analysis of election in terms of demographics, independents and so on.

The campaign a week ago, in a snapshot, was decisive for Obama. He had utilized the best form of defense, offense, against McCain and played to his base, independents and common sense in a rousing week that showed the Democrats unite against the GOP by bringing in many Clinton supporters (minus some fringe outliers) as well as successfully tying McCain and Bush to each other.

Snapshots are transient and McCain changed the picture by choosing Sarah Palin as V.P. This proved a peculiar and divisive choice, but did a few fundamental things:

1. Rallied and consolidated the conservative base.
2. Rallied and consolidated the liberal base after her sarcastic speech.
3. Female voters were a target, but it is not certain if this worked.
4. Regionally, does not do much, but take Alaska's 3 votes off the table. Wasn't an option anyway.
5. Doesn't do much for Michigan or Pennslyvania, might in Colorado and may hurt in Florida.

a. Michigan will see that she does not have any economy experience except for her DRILL position. No state connections, unlike Romney or Ridge, and these are the two states that McCain could change the race with. Now Ohio and Florida need to be McCain. Minnesota is also off the table unless they rally around her accent. Even though the convention is there, the polls are double digit and will require too much time and energy to flip, same goes WI and maybe even Iowa.

b. Her maverick and West Coast bit might play well on the surface, but if the drill deep into her views on abortion, censorship and foreign policy she won't seem as attractive. New Mexico won't flip, Colorado is probably 50/50 and Nevada could still go either way, but will probably be McCain.

c. Florida has an older population and a fairly big Jewish one. She has many questions about the Jews for Jesus connection, as well as possibly supporting Buchanon. This could provide a backlash and it definitely doesn't secure Florida, which Lieberman definitely would have done. Does nothing for the Hispanic population and DRILL doesn't seem to be the biggest of issues in this state.

Overall, McCain did not have a much more attractive approach to go with. Independents would have been reached by a Lieberman or Ridge, but he chose to energize the base with a candidate that legitimately excites the church crowd. Her pick will merit a look from many indies, but they will see social views that are too fringe for mainstream America, as well as age and experience issues and no foreign policy chops. McCain's age is now even more prominent, as she has a very real chance of becoming president due to his cancer history. It is yet to be seen if her experience could be a connection to Obama's and how this would help or hurt. Exciting the base will not be enough as the demographics have changed in America and now consolidating the base, while important, is less so than seeking independents. These 10-15% of swingable voters are the real deciders and if McCain and Palin can reach them it will be close election.