Politics

Let us do some analysis of election in terms of demographics, independents and so on.

The campaign a week ago, in a snapshot, was decisive for Obama. He had utilized the best form of defense, offense, against McCain and played to his base, independents and common sense in a rousing week that showed the Democrats unite against the GOP by bringing in many Clinton supporters (minus some fringe outliers) as well as successfully tying McCain and Bush to each other.

Snapshots are transient and McCain changed the picture by choosing Sarah Palin as V.P. This proved a peculiar and divisive choice, but did a few fundamental things:

1. Rallied and consolidated the conservative base.
2. Rallied and consolidated the liberal base after her sarcastic speech.
3. Female voters were a target, but it is not certain if this worked.
4. Regionally, does not do much, but take Alaska's 3 votes off the table. Wasn't an option anyway.
5. Doesn't do much for Michigan or Pennslyvania, might in Colorado and may hurt in Florida.

a. Michigan will see that she does not have any economy experience except for her DRILL position. No state connections, unlike Romney or Ridge, and these are the two states that McCain could change the race with. Now Ohio and Florida need to be McCain. Minnesota is also off the table unless they rally around her accent. Even though the convention is there, the polls are double digit and will require too much time and energy to flip, same goes WI and maybe even Iowa.

b. Her maverick and West Coast bit might play well on the surface, but if the drill deep into her views on abortion, censorship and foreign policy she won't seem as attractive. New Mexico won't flip, Colorado is probably 50/50 and Nevada could still go either way, but will probably be McCain.

c. Florida has an older population and a fairly big Jewish one. She has many questions about the Jews for Jesus connection, as well as possibly supporting Buchanon. This could provide a backlash and it definitely doesn't secure Florida, which Lieberman definitely would have done. Does nothing for the Hispanic population and DRILL doesn't seem to be the biggest of issues in this state.

Overall, McCain did not have a much more attractive approach to go with. Independents would have been reached by a Lieberman or Ridge, but he chose to energize the base with a candidate that legitimately excites the church crowd. Her pick will merit a look from many indies, but they will see social views that are too fringe for mainstream America, as well as age and experience issues and no foreign policy chops. McCain's age is now even more prominent, as she has a very real chance of becoming president due to his cancer history. It is yet to be seen if her experience could be a connection to Obama's and how this would help or hurt. Exciting the base will not be enough as the demographics have changed in America and now consolidating the base, while important, is less so than seeking independents. These 10-15% of swingable voters are the real deciders and if McCain and Palin can reach them it will be close election.